tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20795009.post2195270102828521160..comments2023-09-22T15:44:10.411-04:00Comments on CUUMBAYA: More on race in the Presidential raceJoel Monkahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10631333436948102576noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20795009.post-64044428791589167512008-10-13T14:51:00.000-04:002008-10-13T14:51:00.000-04:00You just had to mention it--now it's popping up al...You just had to mention it--now it's popping up all over.<BR/><BR/>http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Scroll down. There's mention of a small reverse effect in some areas.ogrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15910505029382522110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20795009.post-69694900530501465752008-10-13T14:28:00.000-04:002008-10-13T14:28:00.000-04:00The effect you're referring to is called the Bradl...The effect you're referring to is called the Bradley -- or Bradley-Wilder -- Effect.<BR/><BR/>It's been gummed nearly to death over at fiverthirtyeight.com -- with the upshot being that the evidence for it was modest, and that it's faded over time. However, if it exists today, it appears to be pretty schizophrenic, with a <I>small</I> swing against Obama plausible in liberal states (where the taboo against expressing one's disfavor for the duskier candidate might be stronest), and an also small swing towards him in the red states where voters might be wary of publicly admitting that they were actually going to vote for him.<BR/><BR/>Bottom line is that if the effect exists, it's small, and probably is unlikely to have an effect save in very strange situations, on a state by state level (say... if GA actually were to get within the proverbial win by an eyelash range). <BR/><BR/>It's made harder to measure by the fact that there are several other hard to determine effects out there, such as the increasing cell phone-only demographic not being polled... and it's made harder to decide if that means anything by the fact that there's an age demographic skew to that demographic, too.ogrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15910505029382522110noreply@blogger.com